A former colleague of mine at CMS sent the following URL. It is a link to the blog of Doug Elmendorf, Director of the Congressional Budget Office, and in this recent post (which caused quite a stir at CMS) Elmendorf supports the statement in my previous post that past demonstrations have failed to show significant savings. It is important to note that even the demonstrations that succeeded in reducing utilization did not really save money because the payments providers received for extra case management services exceeded the savings resulting from reduced utilization.
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=3158#more-3158
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